Predicting Stock Indices Trends using Neuro-fuzzy Systems in COVID-19

Predicting the ebb and flow of stock markets is a complex and challenging exercise owing to the disruptive and uncertain behavior of stock prices. The COVID-19 pandemic is an example of an event that, had a drastic impact on global stock markets, due to business activities and trading being severely affected. It is important, therefore, to be able to predict how stock markets behave in a crisis period. We find that stock markets obtain the worst returns in countries where there are higher reported positive cases of coronavirus. This study employs adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), comprising of a controller and the stock market process, to predict the behavior of selected stock indices. After training ANFIS and evaluating the resultant data, we estimate statistical errors and found that 100 training epochs provide marginally better results. To test the accuracy of our results, we used hit rate success and report that the neuro-fuzzy system predicts stock market trends with an average accuracy of 65.84%, an improvement over earlier techniques reported in the literature. Finally, we compute the rate of return using a buy-and-hold strategy and a neuro-fuzzy system, and identify that market indices outperform by employing the proposed method.

COVID fear and work-family conflict: a moderated mediated model of religiosity, COVID stress and social distancing: MRN

Purpose>Based on the arguments of conservation of resource theory (COR), this study aims to investigate the mechanism underlying the linkage of COVID fear, work-family conflict (W-FC) and family-work conflict (F-WC) while investigating the mediating role of COVID stress and social distancing. The study also tests the moderating role of religiosity in these relationships.Design/methodology/approach>In total, 401 survey responses from doctors and university teachers are collected through online and personally administrated questionnaires. Partial least square-based structural equation modeling technique is applied using Smart PLS software.Findings>This study finds that COVID fear has a positive and significant impact on COVID stress and social distancing while religiosity negatively impacts COVID fear. Further, COVID stress and social distancing mediates the relationships between COVID fear and W-FC/ F-WC. However, the study found that COVID stress is a more effective mechanism as compared to social distancing in explaining the mediation process. It is also found that religiosity significantly moderates the nexus between COVID stress and both W-FC and F-WC negatively.Practical implications>Findings imply that the teachers, as well as doctors, must be immediately be provided with the proper facilitation to maintain their work from home operations with the best of the institutional facilities. Moreover, the recruitment policy in such professions can also consider religious practices to be the indicators of problem-solving and stress management in such a challenging context.Originality/value>This study provides timely and novel insight into the interplay between the domains of work and family during the period of stressful COVID outbreak. By distinguishing W-FC and F-WC, it provides a detailed understanding of the process during the COVID period. The groundbreaking finding in the research is with the moderation of religiosity.

Role of Civil Society Organizations for Promoting Green and Blue Infrastructure to Adapting Climate Change: Evidence from Islamabad City, Pakistan

This study contributes to understand the role of civil society organizations (CSOs) for promoting the green and blue infrastructure (GBI) by studying the case of Islamabad city. Pakistan is facing severe crises due to climate change and it is ranked one of the most vulnerable countries due to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is the main strategy of Pakistan to deal with climatic impacts. Implementing the GBI plays a key role in urban areas for promoting adaptive governance towards climate change. Many efforts have been initiated to manage the issue of climate change by the national, provincial, and local governments in Pakistan. The latest and notable strategy by Pakistani government was taking in the form of the Clean Green Pakistan Strategy (CGPS). However, there are multiple challenges and hurdles for effective implementation of the CGPS. On the heels of Paris Agreement 2015, the CSOs have an important role to overcome these challenges and to prepare the local communities in collaboration with local institutions especially in cities for promoting the GBI and tackling climate change effectively. This study is conducted to understand and uncover the role of the CSOs for promoting the GBI as adaptive strategy in dealing with climate change in Islamabad city of Pakistan. The study focuses to investigate and dig out the prominent initiatives of the CSOs for promoting the GBI in Pakistani governance system. It also identifies the hurdles and challenges for the CSOs in relation to promoting the GBI in Pakistan. A case study approach as research methodology is employed where semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant actors in Islamabad city. The study finds that the CSOs are actively involved in promotion of the GBI in collaboration of Islamabad administration through plantation drive, educating school students on the GBI, arranging training programs to the local community, providing advocacy assistance and helping city government for devising policies and action plans for the GBI. The CSOs act as a representative of the community in devising the GBI policies and implementation actions at local scale through consistent engagement with local administration and local community in the city. The CSOs have emerged as a mediator in aligning intergovernmental relations for implementing the GBI as these CSOs are working with local, provincial, and federal institutions, thus they are key for all tiers of the governments. The major challenges faced by the CSOs are identified: weak linkage and cooperation among local and international organizations, limited financial resources, and weak capacity in local organizations. The role of CSOs appears in an infancy stages but it is emerging with a reasonable pace for effective adaptive governance in relation with the GBI in Pakistan.

The broad-spectrum antiviral recommendations for drug discovery against COVID-19.

Despite to outbreaks of highly pathogenic beta and alpha coronaviruses including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and human coronavirus, the newly emerged 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) is considered as a lethal zoonotic virus due to its deadly respiratory syndrome and high mortality rate among the human. Globally, more than 3,517,345 cases have been confirmed with 243,401 deaths due to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) caused by COVID-19. The antiviral drug discovery activity is required to control the persistence of COVID-19 circulation and the potential of the future emergence of coronavirus. However, the present review aims to highlight the important antiviral approaches, including interferons, ribavirin, mycophenolic acids, ritonavir, lopinavir, inhibitors, and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to provoke the nonstructural proteins and deactivate the structural and essential host elements of the virus to control and treat the infection of COVID-19 by inhibiting the viral entry, viral RNA replication and suppressing the viral protein expression. Moreover, the present review investigates the epidemiology, diagnosis, structure, and replication of COVID-19 for better understanding. It is recommended that these proteases, inhibitors, and antibodies could be a good therapeutic option in drug discovery to control the newly emerged coronavirus.HighlightsCOVID-19 has more than 79.5% identical sequence to SARS-CoV and a 96% identical sequence of the whole genome of bat coronaviruses.Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), renal failure, and septic shock are the possible clinical symptoms associated with COVID-19.Different antivirals, including interferons, ribavirin, lopinavir, and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) could be the potent therapeutic agents against COVID-19.The initial clinical trials on hydroquinone in combination with azithromycin showed an admirable result in the reduction of COVID-19.The overexpression of inflammation response, cytokine dysregulation, and induction of apoptosis could be an well-organized factors to reduce the pathogenicity of COVID-19.